By Sumayya
Rumors of an unusually early mix-up of the polar vortex at the Arctic are making local weather experts curious, but they are not worried.
According to The Weather Network, the winds that create the vortex at the top of the North Pole might grow weak months earlier than usual. This can drop freezing air down to the Earth’s surface, causing colder temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere.
However, weather experts do not know exactly when it will happen, where it will happen, or if it will even happen at all. “That could be Canada. That could be somewhere in Europe. It may not happen at all,” stated Kelsey McEwen, the chief meteorologist for CTV’s Your Morning.
Weather forecasters are watching the movement and direction of the winds, but they cannot promise if or when the vortex will weaken, and if it does, what that result would look like for Canada.
“It is tough to know for sure,” McEwen stated, adding that weather experts might not know more until the first week of November. “It is a possibility that can affect the winter forecast.”
Whether or not the vortex brings colder weather, it will not change how Canadians get ready for winter, according to Dr. Christoph Gatzen.
“It is not something that keeps me awake at night,” Gatzen, a research meteorologist at Western University, told CTVNews.ca. “There is no really huge, dramatic change in the weather coming soon.”
How a polar vortex works
McEwen explained that the vortex is like a “spinning top” sitting above the North Pole.
“It is this ring of winds circling cold air high above the Arctic (in the stratosphere),” she stated.
The stratosphere is the second-lowest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere and sits about 10 to 50 kilometers above the surface of the planet.
The vortex usually gets stronger during the winter time when the Arctic loses its sunshine.
Air waves moving up from the atmosphere could cause the “spinning top to start to shake,” McEwen stated, and after that, the air around it can heat up very fast.
“It is something we call sudden stratospheric warming,” McEwen stated.
That “disturbance” can affect the jet stream of freezing air and dictate where it “falls down toward the atmosphere below,” she added, greatly cooling down temperatures on the ground surface.
Earlier stratospheric warming and El Niño
Stratospheric warming usually happens between January and March, but last year, weather experts noticed an event happening in November.
“It is not very likely to happen this early in the season,” Gatzen stated.
It is possible that the growing El Niño event, which is described as the strongest one ever recorded, might have played a role in weakening the polar vortex, but Gatzen warned against making a direct connection.
Weather in the troposphere, which is located below the stratosphere, could also play a part.
“It is very hard to find out which force here is the important one,” he stated.
Temperature differences
If the vortex does get weaker and if that change affects temperatures in Canada, weather experts state the difference in temperature might depend on how cold it already is in that area.
Areas that already have colder weather could see temperatures drop well below 0°C, McEwen stated, compared to warmer areas where the cold air might feel “less powerful.”
“But it is tough to know,” she stated.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that happens across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years. The ENSO affects weather systems across the entire world, bringing extreme weather like floods and dry spells. El Niño generally causes drier weather in Australia and South-East Asia, and wetter and warmer weather in the Americas.
El Niño a better indicator of winter season
Most weather experts have decided that this year’s El Niño will be the strongest ever recorded, with some people calling it the “Godzilla” of El Niños.
McEwen suggested that it will be a much bigger factor in deciding this year’s winter season.
Last year, the early polar vortex weakening happened at the same time as the La Niña event, which is usually linked to colder-than-average winters.
“Because we had that global atmosphere setup,” she stated, “we were ready to see that… more winter-like winter that we experienced last year.”
El Niño generally brings warmer winters to Canada, which might blend differently with the freezing air from the vortex.
“Your guess is as good as mine at this point of how long it will last,” McEwen stated about any cold snaps that might come from this combination.
Prepare like it is any other winter
An early weakening might be “interesting” but it is not a reason to worry, both weather experts stated.
At this time of the year, most Canadians are already getting ready for the winter season anyway, Gatzen stated.
“You change your car tires, and you get ready for snow,” he added.
Right now, the polar vortex has not even become a popular topic for casual talk because it is simply too early to tell what could happen, he said.
McEwen advised people to follow the basic rules of changing seasons.
“I can tell you for sure, winter will be colder than summer, and I can tell you probably this winter will be warmer than last winter,” she stated. “But either way, you are going to need a winter coat. You are going to need your boots, and you are probably going to shovel snow.”
