By Sumayya

For people in Canada watching U.S. President Donald Trump’s second time in office from across the border, the upcoming midterm votes in the United States could mark a major shift.

The vote on November 3 will not choose who stays in the White House, since the next big presidential race will not happen until November 2028. Instead, American voters will pick who runs the U.S. Congress, and this mix of control could impact everything from trade taxes with Canada to how much freedom the president has to carry out his plans. Eric Ham, a Washington-based political expert for CTV News, shared his thoughts with CTVNews.ca about what Canadians should keep an eye on during these U.S. midterms.

Midterm elections happen right in the middle of a U.S. president’s four-year term and occur every two years. Voters will decide on all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, where politicians serve two-year terms. In the U.S. Senate, which contains 100 seats with six-year terms, about one-third of the spots are up for grabs every two years. “So you have the presidential election, which of course are the major elections that we see take place in the United States every four years,” Ham explained. “And then … we have what are called off-year elections … that are two years after the presidential election, which also determines the balance of power in Congress.”

While Election Day lands on November 3, Americans do not have to wait until that date to cast their ballots. Voting guidelines differ across each U.S. state. Many regions allow people to vote early in person or use mail-in papers, with all schedules and steps managed by local state rules. “Elections actually take place at the behest of states,” Ham said. “It is states that control its own elections.” This means Canadians might see Americans starting to vote weeks before the actual election night, depending on where they live.

Congress, which includes both the House and the Senate, is responsible for writing laws, giving the green light to government spending, and checking the actions of the president’s team. This makes the midterms highly important, especially since Trump has been making massive changes to global trade and foreign relationships. If one political party controls both parts of Congress, it is much easier for them to pass their own laws. A split Congress can make it very tough for the White House to pass anything. Ham noted that Canadians should look closely at whether the Democrats win enough seats to actually fight the president on things like trade tariffs. “Much of that is going to be determined by who controls Congress,” Ham stated.

Trade is a top concern for Canada in this race, as the U.S. is its biggest business partner. If the Democrats win control, lawmakers might try to take back the power over trade that the current Congress gave away to the president. However, even if that happens, Ham warned, “the fact that Congress will now pass legislation that will either rescind Trump’s tariff authority or will take back that authority for themselves, there’s no guarantee the president is going to go along with that.”

On election night, Ham believes Canadians should focus on two main outcomes. “One: how wide a margin are we going to see if in fact Democrats take back control of both chambers,” he said. The second key point to watch is how the government responds if the Democrats do win back both parts of Congress, focusing heavily on how much the political power shifts and what happens next.