By Sumayya
LONDON — Global warming is now expected to be higher than past guesses. Even in the most hopeful situation, average temperatures will still increase to 1.7–1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the middle of the century, according to a UN report shared on Wednesday.
Even though renewable energy is growing fast and climate policies are lowering pollution in many areas, the report stated that “urgent and stringent” (fast and strict) cuts are still required to reach that best-case result. The UN Environment Programme’s report noted that greenhouse gas pollution must drop 18% from 2025 levels by 2030, drop 45% by 2035, and drop 69% by 2040. Right now, current plans by countries would lower pollution by only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035.
The report predicted that the world will warm by 2.8 degrees Celsius by the year 2100 under current rules. It will warm by 2.6 degrees Celsius if nations completely finish their current climate promises. Both of these numbers are higher than the guesses made last year. This increase is because the United States left the Paris Agreement and because experts changed how they calculate past pollution.
As countries get ready for the next round of climate meetings in Turkey, called COP31, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said it is very important not to stop working to control the pollution that causes floods, fires, and other natural disasters.
“Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century,” Guterres said.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations agreed to try to keep the average temperature rise well below 2 degrees, and ideally at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Because keeping warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius without going over the limit is no longer seen as possible, the UN Environment Programme introduced a new “lowest possible” overshoot plan. This plan gives about a 50% chance that temperatures could drop back down to 1.5 degrees Celsius or lower by the year 2100.
The report stated that the climate plans sent in since last year have made almost no difference to future warming predictions. It added that getting back down to 1.5 degrees Celsius will rely on removing carbon from the air on a massive scale, and no one is sure if that can actually be done successfully.
